金融危机有感今天的金融危机毕竟不是98年的亚洲金融风暴。这些年来中国经济的发展实拜98年的亚洲金融风暴所赐。98年之前，世界第一大的零售商沃尔玛，它的提供商并不是中国，而是东南亚，当然也可以说中国与它们平分秋色。也就是说它们和中国处于竞争对手的位置。竞争得最激烈的时候，东南亚一带爆发了金融危机，陷入了4-5年的挣扎期。。西方没有受到影响，还得到了一些额外的利润。。这就注定了西方的消费呈增长趋势。。。想想看，对手失去了4-5年的时间，而这一部份的时间被中国意外地得到。。而今天，我们面临的金融危机与98年不同。。中国本身的市场是欧美的沃尔玛。沃尔玛是世界第一大零售商。它是美国的家族企业，如同法国的家乐福一样。而现在的金融危机对沃尔玛当然会有影响，那么作为沃尔玛产品提供商的中国，目前，外需不足，内需又根本起动不了，严重的产能过剩才是问题。。虽然中国的金融体系没有完全对外开放，有它相对的独立性。虽然在这一次的金融危机中冲击表面上看似乎不大，但是！一些因信贷扩张的经济实体，被误导的商人，他们投资的那些项目，那些甚至在正常情况下不一定能获利的项目，他们所受到的正面冲击则是不可避免的了。。看了博友的一些博文，珠江三角地带饱受冲击。。大量的裁员，大量的工厂倒闭。。刚和广东的一位客户聊，他说那一带每天平均有100家工厂倒闭关门。。。很多人面临失业。。工人在政府大楼前集会追薪。。。这种现象发人深思。。。这仅仅是问题刚刚冒了个泡泡出来。。而明年，明年这一场金融危机对中国的影响，形式我觉得很悲观。或许明年，搞不好就会有些变动，一些新的政策会出来，谁知道呢？拭目以待吧！中国的发展集中在投资和出口领域，内需其实严重地不足。这种产业结构本来就很畸形。而内需提不起来最根本的原因是：社会保障体系的不健全，甚至缺失。工资，及可以支配收入的增长又是这么缓慢！因此中国人的“自我保护”意识决定了中国人的消费观念不象美国人那样超前享受。而思想的观念决定行为，自然，出于“自我保护”意识，住房，教育，医疗等这些保障性的储蓄主导着中国老百姓的消费，也就是说住房，教育，医疗等才是中国人的主体消费，自然而然地，日常其他的消费就减少了嘛。。这种现象由此导致产业结构的畸形。。。内需很难拉动。。解决问题的关键还得建立和完善社会保障体系。。。没有后患了，老百姓才会把钱拿出来消费。。当然，建立和完善社会保障体系，非一朝一日就能办到，这是一个很漫长的过程。。。胡主席，温总理的压力够大。。这一场金融危机，中国受到的影响，持续的时间，也许会比美国长。Thoughts on financial crisisToday's financial crisis is not 98 years of the Asian financial crisis. Over the years China's economic development is 98 years of worship of the Asian financial turmoil has done. 98 years ago, the world's largest retailer Wal-Mart, it is not a provider of China, but Southeast Asia and, of course, can be said that China and they were evenly divided. That is to say they are competitors and the Chinese position. The most intense competition, the Southeast Asia financial crisis broke out, fell into a period of 4-5 years of struggle. . West was not affected, but also received some additional profits. . This doomed the West increasing trend in consumption. . . Just think, opponents lost 4-5 years, which most of the time by the Chinese to be accidental. .Today, we face the financial crisis in 98 years and different. . China's own market is Europe and the United States of Wal-Mart. Wal-Mart is the world's largest retailer. It is the United States, family businesses, as France's Carrefour, like. But now the financial crisis would affect the course of Wal-Mart, then as a Wal-Mart products provider in China, at present, lack of external demand, domestic demand also can not simply start serious is the problem of excess production capacity. .Although China's financial system is not completely open to the public, has its relative independence. Although this time of financial crisis appears to be little impact on the surface, but! Credit expansion due to the economic entity, the businessmen have been misled, they invest in those projects, those who even under normal circumstances is not necessarily profitable projects, they have been a positive impact is inevitable. . Read some of the Friends of Bo Bowen, suffering from the impact zone of the Pearl River Delta. . A large number of layoffs, a large number of factories closing down. . A just and Guangdong Guest chat, he said that there was a daily average around 100 to close the factory is closed. . . Many people lose their jobs. . Workers in the Government paid up front of the building assembly. . . This thought-provoking. . . This is only the question of just taking a bubble out. .Next year, next year a financial crisis on China's influence, the form I am very pessimistic. Maybe next year, the well will be some changes, some new policies will come out, who knows? Wait and see!China's development is concentrated in the areas of investment and exports, domestic demand and in fact seriously insufficient. This structure already deformity. While domestic demand is not up to the most fundamental reason: the social security system is inadequate, or even missing. Wages, and can be disposable income growth are so slow! Therefore the Chinese people's self-protection consciousness determines the concept of Chinese people's consumption is not as advanced as Americans enjoy. The act of thinking of the concept of the decision, naturally, for self-protection awareness, housing, education, health care, such as those to protect the savings of the people of China's leading consumer, that is housing, education, medical care is the mainstay of the Chinese people consumption, naturally, the other day-to-day consumption reduces them. . This phenomenon has led to the abnormal structure. . . Stimulating domestic demand, it is very difficult. . The key to solve the problem will have to establish and perfect the social security system. . . No troubles, and people will come up with the money to spend. . Of course, the establishment and perfection of the social security system, non-once can be done on the 1st, this is a very long process. . .President Hu, Premier Wen Jiabao pressure is large enough. . This is a financial crisis, China's impact, the duration may be longer than the United States.仅供参考，请自借鉴希望对您有帮助